China is toast. Quarantining 400 million people still leaves a reservoir of 1 billion people in hundreds of small cities and towns and thousands of villages who may catch the virus from people who returned home from cities before they were locked down.
Restrictions on travel have been imposed, and people aren’t going to work, which is bad news for what is the world’s second-biggest economy. Does anybody really believe that China is self-imploding its economy for some common flu?
This thing kills the young and healthy, just like the Spanish flu. Once it gets loose in India and Africa, it will go ballistic.
How can people be adequately screened when you can carry the virus for 14 days with no symptoms and still be contagious? There are now more than 30 1500 confirmed cases worldwide ; at least 724 patients have died, and that includes a Chinese doctor who tried to warn the world about a month ago. The effect of the spread of the coronavirus on global supply chains is devastating for the global economy. If this continues for another month, there won’t be any Chinese economy left. Infected Chinese Mainlanders are escaping to Hong Kong and out to other countries at this moment.
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You can’t shut off the entire country of China, the manufacturing engine of the world, and move on as nothing happened. I can’t think of any positive outlook at all. Rural areas will ride it out better than others, of course. This is a precursor to something terrible. The 2nd amendment is useless against the plague. The global debt-based economy is already so fragile that it did not need a black swan like a coronavirus pandemic to bring it crashing down.
I expect the banksters will claim that it was the pandemic that crashed the economy and demand ever more publicly funded bailouts. The Power That Be must be terrified, the Black Death in Europe totally upended the system and their power, it has taken them this long to get back to where they were, and they thought they would have no further needs of the current serfs. An inherently unstable social system in an inherently unstable global society and economy.
The consequence is almost always war. In this case A Global recession has already started. The avalanche has started, run for cover. Media will keep ignoring it to avoid panic, but it is a matter of time.
China’s Collapse Has Only Begun; James Rickards wrote : Quarantine is the most effective approach. But how do you quarantine a city of 11 million, let alone a country of 1.3 billion people?
It’s very difficult to project growth rates. But if the virus stays on its current growth trajectory, more than 100 million people could be infected by the end of this month alone. Many countries have banned arrivals from China, and leading airlines have discontinued flights to China. That helps, but the virus continues to spread. While the long-term medical outcome is uncertain, the short-term economic damage is not. And China cannot afford a sustained economic setback. China’s economy is already suffering extreme damage.
Their consumer economy has stalled as people stay home and avoid public transportation, stores, and restaurants. The epicenter of the virus, Wuhan, is the capital of China’s Hubei province, a critical manufacturing center that represents 4% of Chinese GDP. Many other major Chinese cities have been shut down, with no citizens allowed to leave and transportation systems closed. Tourism is dead, and many businesses are requiring that executives cancel trips to China until further notice.
This comes at a time when the Chinese economy was slowing anyway. And some economists project that China’s growth rate could drop two full percentage points this quarter. That would translate to roughly $62 billion in lost growth.
Meanwhile, Chinese stocks promptly crashed over 8% in a matter of minutes this morning, after being closed for a number of days. Stimulus measures in the form of monetary ease are being tried. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) says it will buy 1.2 trillion yuan ($173 billion) in short-term bonds to add liquidity to the financial system. But the net amount of liquidity that will make it into the system is actually much lower. According to PBOC data, over 1 trillion yuan ($22 billion) worth of other short-term bonds matured today. So the net amount of liquidity entering the system is actually significantly less than the raw number indicates. And the stimulus is unlikely to work because of China’s sky-high debt levels.
China’s debt-to-GDP ratio, for example, is about 310%, which is astonishing. Let’s hope the coronavirus is contained soon. Unfortunately, the damage to China’s economy is already happening and will persist even if the virus is soon under control. And given China’s impact on the global economy, the rest of the world will suffer as a result.
The stock market is not reacting yet, but the bond market is. Yields are going down. Central banks have dumped trillions in the last five days. Markets would be down 15-20% (like December 2018) if central banks weren’t pumping all full speed last week. China dumped billions in the market to keep it from crashing. I guess those big corporations who love to outsource to Asia.
Better bring back those jobs back to America or go bankrupt!
Top 10 US companies in China will hurt the most. The CEO’s probably stressed off badly right now. What goes around, comes around! Expect supply disruptions as China takes measures to contain an ongoing coronavirus outbreak. The sharp action taken by the Chinese government to basically delay workers going back to work is definitely causing supply disruptions. A big question mark remains over how long the disruptions could last.
This Coronavirus is hurting the world economy. I hope this black swan event illustrates the huge risk and short-sightedness of allowing a country’s manufacturing capability to be largely outsourced to a foreign country. And doubly so for agriculture production. Damn the global economy. People are at risk of dying in untold amounts. China’s economic growth has fallen to an almost three-decade low. China’s household debt to disposable income, on average, is around 175% now. It was somewhere around 135% by H2 of 2018. The debt binge by China’s household will take years to unwind and pay off. How in the world do you expect China’s economy to get better with consumers overly indebted, thereby depressing consumption? Even the newfangled debt bubble called P2P, which is sponsored by the Chinese state, has failed to shore up domestic consumption. But of course, China’s headed for a slowdown. Get ready NOW this is going to get serious!!!!
They are not telling us everything. whatever china is doing to contain the virus is already , too little too late.
This is about as effective as yelling to everyone in the house, that the bathtub upstairs is overflowing and then everyone rushes upstairs to mop up the wet floor, but they leave the bathtub faucet flowing full blast! (It is beyond laughable, that the world would believe anything China’s military communist government tells us. Just add a few more zeros to any total infected numbers they choose to share and remember, when the communist party members want your opinion, they will give it to you.
The coronavirus will trigger a global recession, starting with China. Each country needs to have local critical industries. Outsourcing everything makes no sense. Too many countries outsourced manufacturing to China because of cheap labor. All they did was hollow out their own middle class by eliminating good middle-class jobs. China is Toast , America is next. I can’t predict exactly when the next significant recession will occur. No one can.
If it could be predicted accurately, everyone would make the proper adjustments in their own situation to deal with it, and it would end up being a non-event. But I’ll tell you a few things that have already got the US headed in the direction of economic recession, and then suggest something to look for in the future that will be the trigger. Tax cuts for the rich, already in place. This ruinous policy of tax cuts for the rich always precedes a serious recession. It isn’t rocket science. When you strangle the economy by handing money over to the rich, the economy will have to react at some point. That reaction will come when consumers start being required to pay the bill for the tax cut for the rich.
Ballooning National Debt, already in place. The tax cuts, of course, are not free. That money comes from somewhere. Right now, it is being borrowed. But this act of borrowing increases the amount of the National Debt that the Working Class is expected to repay. At some point, taxes for the Working Class only will be increased to pay for the handout the rich got last year. What to look for: Increases in taxes.
These increases which haven’t happened yet, but are inevitable, will strike the Working Class, not the wealthy, and not the corporations. This might come as a repeal of exemptions to taxation that Working Class citizens now enjoy. It might come as an obvious increase in some tax we are currently paying. It might come as a curtailment of some program (Social Security comes to mind), that the Working Class benefits from. But when that happens, and it will happen, it will have the effect of making millions of hard-working Americans poorer. It will have the effect of diminishing the amount of money that the average citizen has to spend in the economy. And the curtailment of spending by Working Class citizens will result in an economic recession. Start of another war somewhere, probably the Mideast. Wars cost money, folks. And no politician, especially a conservative politician, wants to raise taxes to fund the wars.
This is because if the US public is required to pay for the wars, they will rise up and put a stop to them. If the public thinks there is no cost to wars, they won’t object too much. But wars cost money, and the rich don’t pay for them, the Workers do. So when more wars are started, especially Mideastern wars, you can be assured that spending by the Working Class will at some point suffer as a result, and that will have the effects mentioned above, bringing on a recession. This will be accelerated if the war upsets the oil markets like happened with the Bush Oil Wars. Most US Working Class citizens barely make it from one paycheck to the next. If the price of fuel goes up, that will make more money out of the economy because the Working Class will have less to spend, once again, heading us to an economic recession. Central Banks Solution: We’ll just keep printing money, and all the problems will magically go away. Because Americans believe that our Ponzi Scheme is better than the rest of the world’s Ponzi Scheme.
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