The Collapse is Much Worse Than You Are Being Told For a long time I warned that our economic bubble would burst and that we would plunge into a nightmarish economic collapse. Now it has happened, and it turns out that fear of COVID-19 was the “black swan event” that triggered the collapse.
The ironic thing is that COVID-19 is not even close to the worst thing that is going to happen to us. But it was more than enough to topple our incredibly fragile economic system, and now tens of millions of Americans are deeply suffering. On Friday, the April jobs report was released, and it was the worst jobs report in U.S. history by a very, very wide margin.
According to the official numbers, 20.5 million Americans lost their jobs during the month, and the unemployment rate shot up to 14.7 percent. During the last recession, the unemployment rate peaked at about 10 percent, and we have already left that number in the dust. The figures that we are seeing now are truly, truly horrifying, and what is even more frightening is that they aren’t even that accurate.
The recent pandemic and resulting lockdown have been an absolute shock nationwide. Travel, hospitality, retail, entertainment, and other industries have been completely devastated. Unemployment is currently 20 percent, and benefits are only beginning to trickle out.
The housing market is slowing.
Nationwide property sales have slowed down. It is much, much harder to get a loan now than it was before during the high of the frenzy thanks to the passing of the Dodd-Frank Act. The entire real estate market in this country is in trouble.
That’s what happens when after 2008, you have Fannie and Freddie hide 5-7 million homes (shadow foreclosures) and print money like there’s no tomorrow. Anybody that thought there was a valid economic recovery since 2008 needs their head checked. Oh, and fake pumped-up numbers and markets don’t matter to me. And Don’t Forget the Bernanke Wealth Effect of purposeful Bubble Pumping and Forced Manipulated 5000-year lows in interest rates and over a decade of ZIRP. You could see this bubble miles away, but it’s taken a lot longer to blow than most of us thought. And The worst is yet to come. In New York City, the nation’s largest real estate market, the pandemic has caused a number of deals to go bust.
In Manhatten, the real estate market, is basically frozen right now, with a record low number of sales and contracts. New listings are down 70 percent over last year .contracts that were signed before the lockdown are being broken or renegotiated. We have 67 contracts canceled in march and 43 in April for Manhatten alone. The Average price cut in April is between ten and fifteen percent. Brokers expect prices to fall up to 20 percent or more. People are fleeing to the suburbs.
The big cities like New York are becoming death traps and an overtaxed dumps. Corona was a small test run of what can and will happen. Smart people are leaving big cities entirely. New York City is priced for simpletons anyways. It is basically the west coast Hollywood, just like Orlando. Way overpriced and over-hyped, only a money-focused clown would buy property there recently. It is a town to flip the property to gullible people who think saying they live in New York makes them superior to their family and friends. COVID-19 is another reason to stay away from big cities like New York. These are one of many problems with a big, overcrowded city. As the economy moves increasingly online, it will be an ever greater strategic disadvantage to be located in major cities like New York with its high taxes, high cost of living, and oppressive regulatory environment.
The future looks highly distributed. For this reason, the long term outlook for commercial real estate in places like New York City can only be mediocre at best. Quality of life and many other advantages await those who are first movers. And the exodus to the countryside has begun. Fanny May is currently predicting a 15 percent decline in home sales for 2020. But the Elephant in the room in this market is the rising unemployment rate, like anything we have seen before.
Income does not support housing prices, and Hyperinflation ! The income of the people is not rising along with inflation and housing prices. Most people make $50k or less; therefore, my question is, how can a family making that supports their family and purchases a home that is $250k or more. Foreign investors in Air BnB’s have made housing unattainable for the average American Family without being over-leveraged or in the hood. Unemployment could linger or worsen, and if the shutdown goes on too long, many businesses are not going to make it.
They will go bankrupt and are not going to rehire. That will make the unemployment situation even worse. That may lead to tenants and landlords defaults. Defaults and foreclosures could become a problem. Many may need to sell. People who are jobless and can’t find employment,over-leveraged AIR BNB hosts with no guests in their properties. If a lot of the inventories come on at once, it is going to be bad for sellers. Default could become a trend. Look at that to start happening in the winter, spring months of the next year. The sellers will be competing for fewer buyers, which means they may need to lower their prices.
The people who have homes are delusional and don’t want to face the harsh reality of a zero interest rate economic crash. There would be an increase in foreclosures going into 2021, because not everyone will get their job back. The market place and consumer spending will take five to four years to establish a normal equilibrium at best. The party is over. Foreign investors will lose a lot of real value in their investments. The tsunami wave just started. 2021 will be the turning point. And despite the low-interest rates, the banks are putting up more strenuous requirements from buyers, so there will be fewer buyers. Loans are almost frozen right now, due to the liquidity issues on the back end. For the time being, the loans are almost impossible to get. Most banks have raised the bar by adding overlays such as 20% down or a 720 credit score. At a time when people are behind on their mortgage payments, car payments, insurance, etc. Their credit scores will also go down, and very few people will be qualified for a home mortgage. We are just at the start of this pandemic.
Many businesses will go belly up; unemployment will probably settle at 12%, and a market that is already 15% above the 2006 peak isn’t likely to continue the unsustainable climb, especially with tightening lending practices. Rates won’t be climbing anytime soon. I say wait it out; inventory is gonna be growing. This is just part one of the pandemic. Part 2 is just around the corner. Hold on to your unmentionables because it is going to get real ugly. Investors need to be cautious in this world, currently full of turmoil. This dip is going to be very deep and will last for a very long time. Do not let caution paralyze you with fear of making the wrong decision, but don’t let greed push you to make a purchase that you will soon regret.
Most millennials can’t afford to buy or refuse to, in this predatory market. Buy now, and prices will eventually sink, and then you’re stuck in the damn house if you want to move because you’ll have to bring tens of thousands to the table to close the deal on an upside down-home. Have fun enjoying your “fundamentally strong” real estate “store of value” when a loaf of bread goes to $18, and you’ll have to take out a home equity loan to buy a lawnmower from Home Depot because runaway inflation is what happens when you backstop everything by printing unlimited amounts of money. I hear a lot of people comparing 2020 to the 2008 crash. But did we have trillions of dollars printed out of thin air to give tens of millions of Americans free money back then ? Airlines shutdown? Thirty-five million on unemployment and continue to rise.
This is a worldwide catastrophic crisis, not just affecting one country. I know it’s hard to tell, but this is a recipe for disaster. With 35 million unemployed Americans, compared to 2 Million unemployed back in the 2008 recession, this is a lot worse. Wait and see what happens with insolvencies and foreclosure to CAPITALIZE! The real issue is how fast people run out of the money they didn’t save. Real estate lags about 9 to 12 months. Wait till next year, and you will see a major drop once over leverage people start defaulting. Interest rates and stimulus can go far, but at the end of the day, if you don’t have a job, you’re not going to be looking for a house to buy – no matter how low rates go. 1 out of every 15 homes in America is in mortgage forbearance. Those payments don’t go away. I don’t know anyone who thinks this will be a V-shaped recovery. Nine Million single-family landlords , and Air BnB houses are going to be the trigger to set the cascade.
People are way overextended on their Mortgage payment already, took out A HELC HOME EQUITY LINE OF CREDIT, maxed on credit cards. The consequences will be felt for at least a generation. Over half the households in America cannot even come up with a $400 emergency fund. I don’t see how the majority will come out of this unscathed. We were in an overvalued housing market before this, and I think it’s unreasonable to expect it to go on forever. Then there is the tax aftermath factor. I believe real estate taxes will soar as the government looks to cover its losses. Homelessness and hunger are going to be a huge problem going forward. If you’re thinking of buying a house, DON’T. The housing markets worldwide will fall to below fair market value before rebounding to a TRUE value, which is at least minus seventy percent from current levels. I honestly feel bad for people who are loosing what little equity they have in their houses in the first place. What I see at the moment are people attempting to pass the hot potato.
Do not trust them.
The banks are poised to take your home. Banks’ job is to screw people. Their goal is to have people lose their houses in foreclosure and then buy all with fake dollars created out of nothing! The housing market is done! The next shoe to drop will be the financial meltdown of the banks.
You are here for your daily dose of the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. Ugly. But this is just the beginning. Nearly anybody with the option will now be working from home. Many jobs have no reason to exist. Some folks are about to be surprised. How much business is superfluous?’ How much of the economy is unnecessary? Gonna be a replay of 2008, jobless recovery, just throw a whole segment of the population out of work, with no hope of ever getting back to where they were, Another wealth transfer underway, no doubt. In hindsight, it is clear to me that the 2008 downturn was pre-planned and totally orchestrated. Just like this one. The 2008 jobless recovery was designed to do just that. It put permanently displaced from work 15% of Americans.
The 2020 event will add another 15% of the population to permanent joblessness. When Universal Basic Income is rolled out publicly, 40% of the population will be on it. Then more and more as robotics and AI take more sophisticated jobs away. The Fed can’t print money forever. And the housing market curve cannot keep going up forever. There is distress all over the planet in all shapes, levels. It’s going to have all adverse effects worse than in 2008. It’s a buyers market for yet another decade all over. Millennials have held back on homebuying, with prices so high, and jobs so unstable, burdened with student debt, why tie yourself to a property when you could travel the world with a laptop living the digital nomad life. Millennials will welcome a crash and wait for it to crash instead of buying. That alone, after all of this, will become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Many were already priced out of the market.
They have underbuilt entry-level priced homes, and now they’ll have to massively underprice the higher end homes, so they have buyers or the investors will have to underprice them as rentals to stay afloat, but many will go under that were over-leveraged already. Investor and foreign buyers are not going up or going to come back quickly, they know there are fewer people wanting to take the leap into a bigger home or first time home, and it’s going to be months before they likely will, long after the buying season and the deflation of prices . And once they see deflation in price it will spiral down as they wait for them to hit bottom because no one wants to buy too soon in a depreciating market. The number of people losing their jobs in the service and retail industry permanently, Air BnB super host, immigration halted, money printing, the bond yield curve, nonprime borrowers, and their lenders possibly going bust, artificially low-interest rates it’s been on its way to correct for a while. The repo market mess, no reserve requirements, the Fed buying so many mortgage back securities, it’s getting a little crazy in banking, which causes uncertainty as well.
The stock market volatility is causing uncertainty. Many first time buyers use their 401K’s to buy homes. Since the prices are so high and now may change their minds. They may plan to save for a down instead and wait for the soon to be retirees who will want to get out of the market as soon as possible, as they are unsure of their pensions and stock investments gaining value and won’t want to miss out on what is left of their home’s equity, so they are able to stop working. Tourism towns are going to go bust, property values there will likely be affected, the silver tsunami is on its way as boomers want to get out of the market before it tanks which will increase supply, new construction has been halted on some projects already.
They know what is going to happen, builders will be affected. Nearly all new buyers are going to wait at least six months to see where their employment situation, 401Ks will be. They will wait out the housing market to see if they can get a better price, not to mention waiting to meet the new requirements that are getting stricter by the minute. Builders and people in great need to sell will start dropping even more in price, lowering the home values around them. It is not hard right now to find listings dropping by 20 to 40k below the original asking price already.
The debt bubbles have been driving the economy. Wages have been outpaced by the insane home price gains of the last four years. Most won’t buy now and will wait . We saw what happened in 2008, and although there haven’t been ninja loans, there has absolutely been nonprime lending in the residential and commercial real estate lending. Demand won’t stay high enough to keep the bubble from popping. Rents are too high to be kept stable during this time, and due to the lack of entry-level housing created, their prices will have to come down if they want tenants. Jumbo loans are incredibly hard to get now, they will need to lower prices, and it may start a trickle-down effect. At the very least, a 50% correction in the bubble areas. The housing market always reacts slower than the stock market. The Fed can manipulate monetary policies that may influence the stock market, but it can’t change the public’s confidence or the lenders near as easily.
This is especially true for the younger generation that is waiting for it to come back down to reality. If the older generation decides not to sell soon, betting that a worldwide recession and massive disruption to all markets, won’t affect their home’s equity, they may be working into their 70’s to afford retirement, which will be heartbreaking. On average most are cash poor and equity rich. Let’s hope they don’t take a huge gamble with their futures. That they make the prudent decision to profit while they still can. Now is the time to sell, hold cash, rent, and buy later. Or sell and buy outright somewhere cheap and rent where you are working, then move in when you retire. Age demographics, especially with immigration halted, are not in a good ratio to support the real estate and stock market to stay afloat. The silver tsunami is crashing forward soon, and it’s time to get ahead of the wave. It is the consumer that our economy stands on, and there is just way too much lasting turmoil being caused by COVID for confidence to come roaring back to near the level it was. Many were already predicting we were due a correction and recession this year, which is also in the consumers’ mind. Bubbles pop. This one is overdue.
They don’t go on forever. The auto loan industry is chock-full of subprime loans and poised to crash that will have many ripple effects. Farming, livestock, produce, processing plants, Credit cards lowering limits. Credit card limits will have an enormous effect on consumer spending in this debt bubble economy, where the average family can’t come up with $400 for an emergency. Consumers will become savers, and unfortunately, that lack of spending will create more job losses. The government can do a lot, but short of Universal Basic Income, it isn’t going to rescue the economy, and it is debatable as far as companies that were buying back stocks and in massive debt if they should. The debt bubble is popping, and we may look like the real estate market of japan soon. Foreign investment buying, Air BnB, millennial confidence aren’t coming back, and the government can’t bring it back no matter how much bailing they do. We are at the beginning of the effects on the market. Betting on a 40% drop in price is way more realistic than betting it’s going up or staying where it’s at.
Take a look at this collection The Lost Book Of Remedies, taken word for word out of a circa 1845 manual.
What is The Lost Book of Remedies? The Lost Book of Remedies PDF contains a series of medicinal and herbal recipes to make home made remedies from medicinal plants and herbs. Chromic diseases and maladies can be overcome by taking the remedies outlined in this book. The writer claims that his grandfather was taught herbalism and healing whilst in active service during world war two and that he has treated many soldiers with his home made cures.